{"product":"fed-policy","chairman":"Kevin Warsh","chairman_source":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm（官网理事会成员名单）","board_members":[{"name":"Kevin Warsh","title":"Chairman"},{"name":"Philip N. Jefferson","title":"Vice Chair"},{"name":"Michelle W. Bowman","title":"Vice Chair for Supervision"}],"chairman_speeches":[{"kind":"speech","title":"In Our Time","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm","speaker":"Chairman Kevin Warsh","date":"2026-08-28","full_text":"Thank you. It's great to be here again and to see so many familiar faces. I've been looking forward to this weekend—what better place to mark my 100th day as Chairman?\nFor the fine hospitality, everyone here is in debt to President Jeff Schmid and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jeff, our thanks to you all.\nJeff and the other planners have some recreation options lined up for later today. And I'd advise you to be very careful with your choices.\nAs I learned years ago, you can take two different kinds of hikes on the trails around Jackson Hole. I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Kohn in two words: I survived. These steely marathon death marches revealed a side of Don I wasn't ready for.\nThere's another kind of hike—one I associate with Chairman Ben Bernanke, my old colleague. With Ben, it's a much more leisurely pace, an easy stroll along the wandering trails at the Rockefeller Preserve.\nSo before setting out, do a wellness check and ask yourself: \"Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day?\"\nThe best thing about this gathering is that it helps us all clear our minds and think straight about our world and our time. For me, it feels like the right place, and the right audience, for a real engagement with the ideas that matter most.\nInnovation is the conference theme, and I believe that the public and the markets—in their collective wisdom—understand that innovations in the conduct of policy at the Fed will help deliver price stability alongside full employment.\nHere is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline . . . you can call it a trail map . . . just don't call it forward guidance.\nFirst, I'll touch on a few of the longer-term questions we're asking at the Fed about the latest general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and where it might take the economy.\nThen I'll reflect a bit on the practice of forward guidance and the interaction between the central bank and financial markets.\nNext, I'll present some of the key principles that I believe should guide the conduct of monetary policy.\nAnd, finally, I'll give you my assessment of the economy.\nPreparing for Future Policy Conjunctures\nWith the unchanging picture of the Tetons as our backdrop, we are here to survey an economic landscape that is anything but static.\nIt wasn't so long ago—in the run-up to the crisis of 2008 and over the decade that followed—when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation and a global saving glut.\n1\nIt was a widely held view that an excess of capital would sit on the sidelines for a long, long time, because there just wouldn't be enough compelling investment opportunities. All the good stuff had been invented. So growth would be low and slow.\n2\nWell, times sure have changed. We've come to a hinge point in history.\n3\nTo cite the clearest example, progress in artificial intelligence—the 80-year-old name for the newest technology—has been faster even than its evangelists predicted a couple of years ago.\nThe potential for substantially higher growth is on the rise. Ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts. A kind of hyper–Moore's law seems to be playing out. Scaling laws, too, are changing both the method and speed of innovation.\n4\nCapital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago.\nThe Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:\nWill the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?\nWill token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution?\nAmong the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?\nLikewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?\nWe will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.\nTo be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.\nForward Guidance and Its Stand-ins\nAs our task forces go about their work, I am not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to make us fit for purpose. To highlight one example, I have set out to change the form and function of the Fed Chairman's so-called forward guidance. You might know about my long-time discomfort with early pronouncements of future policy decisions. I much prefer another path . . . and will make the case for it.\nTransparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself. Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility: getting monetary policy right.\n5\nForward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis.\n6\nIt was essential at the time, and we introduced it with much fanfare. But, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome.\nIn normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed. Otherwise it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity. Oversharing policy deliberations and overcommitting to future decisions can lead markets, businesses, and households astray.\n7\nAnd I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates through the cycle, we inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it's time to decide.\nTo get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank. The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible . . . from market internals . . . the level and change in asset prices across sectors . . . the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities. . . the foreign exchange value of the dollar . . . the cost and availability of credit . . . and the price of a broad set of commodities.\nThese and other indicators should inform the Fed's near-term outlook on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle. They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions . . . and the risks and uncertainties in the financial cycle.\nAt the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information across the economy. They should draw their own conclusions; form their own expectations of output, employment, and inflation; and stay sharply attuned to risks.\nThe Fed should be humble and never naïve. The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.\nThe economic literature has long described the distorting effects: a hall-of-mirrors problem.\n8\nIf markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we are all more likely to be blinded to new developments . . . more likely to be caught unprepared for a turn of events . . . and more likely to commit errors in policymaking.\n9\nPerversely, market participants are unlikely to bear the biggest costs of the hall-of-mirrors problem. The most serious harm is likely to befall those without financial assets. If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? Not the financial high-fliers. Hard-working Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that is too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.\nSo, if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, then how about the new Fed chief commits—at the very least—to an explicit reaction function? Surely, he should tell us his interest rate path—if, say, the data were to come in hot or cold.\nI wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried-and-true answer—that some simple function like a Taylor rule could be rigorously relied upon. But our knowledge just doesn't extend that far—at least not yet—and the factors most relevant to the proper conduct of monetary policy change over time.\nProviding forecasts to illustrate the Fed's reaction function works better in theory than in practice, better in the lab than in the field. I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.\n10\nIn my term as Chairman, my colleagues and I will endeavor to construct more reliable models and more robust rules to guide policy decisions. We'll do this knowing that accuracy in economic forecasting is still just an aspiration. With so much changing so fast in geopolitics, global supply chains, and technology, it's wise to be modest about what we can and cannot know.\nIn the same spirit, we should receive the full range of ideas on matters that may inform the Fed's monetary policy decisions. If the aim is optimal decisionmaking, we should not crowd out views on the economy.\nKey Principles\nTurning to principles . . .\nFirst, I've noticed that, in this line of work, yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now. The challenge is to know the difference. In other words, we must interrogate reality to make sure we are not setting forward-looking policy based on stale or inaccurate data. Nor should we rely on isolated data points. Trends matter most. The Fed is a decisionmaking agency. We make choices amid uncertainty, and the data upon which we draw must be as relevant, contemporaneous, accurate, and actionable as possible.\n11\nSecond, the Federal Reserve's actions are intended to ensure that the aggregate demand side of the economy is broadly consistent with aggregate supply. However, all we observe directly is activity. We never see, and can only infer, what's really happening on the supply side. Hence, evaluating the current and expected balance between aggregate supply and demand is imprecise.\n12\nThird, there should be no misunderstanding: The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target. Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.\nFourth, the Fed also bears responsibility for maximum employment. Achieving both sides of our mandate over the medium term is not an either/or proposition. I do not believe that the Fed's dual mandate works at cross-purposes. After all, high inflation itself is very harmful to economic prosperity.\nFifth, short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.\nSixth, money matters. It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy.\n13\nWe should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems.\n14\nIt's true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.\nFinally, a quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit—the only true test of our credibility. To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, \"At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results.\"\n15\nThe Economy Today\nNow, given these principles, how do I read the economy today? What's really going on outside the window?\n16\nYou may have read in the July minutes the unanimous view of the FOMC:\n17\nLabor markets were stable, and output was solid. But inflation remained too high. A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require.\nFor my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient.\nSeveral observations:\nBusiness capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to AI.\nFor firms in the S&P 500, profits have grown by more than 20 percent over the past year. Profit margins are quite elevated, relative to history. Overall equity market volatility is low. We're staying keenly focused on market internals, watching performance across sectors.\nExpectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.\nCredit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low ends of their historical ranges, and issuance volumes in these markets have been quite strong this year. Looking beyond fixed-income markets to the banking business, in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tell us that standards for commercial and industrial loans are on the easier end of their historical range. That helps explain the growth we've seen this year in those loans. Credit and loan markets are showing few signs of policy restraint.\nCertain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.\nReal consumer spending has been healthy despite the shocks, increasing more than 2 percent over the past four quarters. Combining consumption with the brisk investment we've observed, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) has also risen. PDFP has increased at a pace of nearly 3 percent so far this calendar year. That's a measure that typically carries more signal than gross domestic product, and the trend here too is positive.\nOn the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well. Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades.\nIn my view, the relatively low turnover in today's labor market is partly a result of the significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment.\nWhen labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.\nBut on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent. The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation. None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.\nThe job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation—that is, the generalized change in prices in the economy, unaffected by idiosyncratic factors. We want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising, falling, or stuck in place. We also want to understand not just the direction of travel, but also the speed. Each of these broad inflation measures has fallen significantly from their 2022 heights. But progress over the past two years has been modest.\nAnd while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.\nThe data also show moderate wage growth. But in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time.\n18\nTo try to gauge underlying inflation, I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PCE price measure. Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic.\nLooking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs but still quite elevated.\nThe recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What we need to judge is whether trends indicate upside inflation risks.\nIt matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five-plus years have seeped into expectations. The good news is that measures of inflation expectations in the medium term, by and large, look stable. And inflation compensation measures from the swaps market send a strong and similar message.\nEspecially in light of recent developments, it is a credit to the Fed as an institution—and consistent with the best of the Fed's traditions—that market prices show confidence that we will deliver price stability. And I can assure you . . . they're right.\nThe thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't. Those expectations are not pushed around easily, and right now they are well anchored. But they must be closely minded. It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored.\nThere is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, e"},{"kind":"testimony","title":"Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/warsh20260714a.htm","speaker":"Chairman Kevin Warsh","date":"2026-07-14","full_text":"Chairman Warsh submitted identical remarks to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, on July 15, 2026.\nChairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee—good morning.\nIt's a privilege to join you. At my first appearance before this panel, I am particularly honored to represent my superb colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System.\nIn submitting the Board's\nMonetary Policy Report\n, I think of a long line of central bank chiefs who came before Congress in keeping with the Federal Reserve Act. I think also of earlier efforts, going back to the time of the Framers, to create a central bank that would endure and serve the nation's founding principles.\nOne of the large figures in the Federal Reserve's history is Alan Greenspan, who passed away last month after a century of life. By my count, my friend appeared before Congress more than two hundred times, displaying his agile mind and his distinctive way with words. We at the Fed recall the Chairman's strong and steady hand in a period of rapid economic change. And we honor his memory.\nAs a country, we just marked our 250th year. And when Americans count our blessings, we can include an economy predicated on the brilliance of our constitutional design and system of ordered liberty—an economy without equal in all it's done for human flourishing.\nSome forms of Fed communications are discretionary, but not this one—and for good reason. It is a prudent and wisely conceived obligation, designed to keep the Fed accountable, responsible, and faithful to its congressional mandate of full employment and price stability. These obligations are of a piece with the Fed's rightful independence in the conduct of monetary policy.\nToday we are at a hinge point in history. It's up to all of us to meet this moment. The task of this generation of policymakers—and of individuals throughout the private sector—is to ensure the American economy excels far into the future.\n* * * *\nThe Fed's number one objective is to get monetary policy right—or as near to it as we possibly can. That is our clear and constant aim, the star we steer by. And if we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.\nA month ago, I chaired my first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. My colleagues and I recognize that high inflation has been an undue burden on American households and businesses. While monthly price fluctuations are inevitable—especially in an unsettled world—underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy.\nNaturally, our work at the Fed demands a proper reading on economic conditions. As you see in our\nMonetary Policy Report\n, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience in the face of recent developments. Household consumption growth is moderate. Manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year. The housing sector, however, gives a different picture and continues to lag.\nThe most striking feature of the economy right now is business investment. The rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—reflects, in large part, the construction of data centers and the immense demand for the AI-related equipment and software that fill them. Investment in equipment overall increased about 8 percent for the year ending in the first quarter. Within that category, high-tech spending logged an especially impressive growth rate of nearly 25 percent on a four-quarter basis. We don't know the extent to which the economy will benefit from the AI buildout. Yet it seems inevitable that what is now called \"AI investment\" will soon be called just \"investment.\" Even so, new opportunities for the economy introduce new challenges for policymakers. We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for inflation and the labor market.\nThat brings me to the supply side, where productivity growth has been strong, predating gains from AI adoption. America's labor market appears broadly stable. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year. We're seeing relatively few layoffs, only slight variance in the rate of job vacancies, and solid growth in nominal wages.\n* * * *\nI came to my new position as a believer in the best traditions of the Federal Reserve. The performance of our nation's central bank depends on a commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity. Humility about what we know—and the courage to revisit our prior views—are also hallmarks of a great institution like ours. All of these standards define the culture of the Fed, and it's my responsibility to uphold them.\nI am heartened by the welcome I've received and by the encouragement of my colleagues in considering how best to advance the conduct of policy. We have a duty to point the institution forward—to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives.\nAnd we are going about it systematically. I have appointed a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy. We have engaged some of the very best minds, from inside and outside the economics profession. They are supported by specialists from the Fed's expert staff. The task forces have been given a straightforward charge: Start with first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practices, consider alternatives, and, ultimately, propose next steps for policymaker consideration. The purpose here is to equip the Fed to make better decisions in monetary policy and to put these years of high inflation behind us.\nThe first task force will assess the form and function of Fed communications. It will ask: What is the efficacy, and what are the risks, of how we currently deliberate and convey our policy choices?\nThe second task force will review the Fed's balance sheet policies, including the ample-reserves regime and the composition of asset holdings. It will ask: What are the advantages and disadvantages of that regime, and what are the alternatives?\nThe third task force will evaluate new data sources and consider methodological changes to improve the information upon which we rely. It will ask: How do we ensure that policymakers are receiving accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, actionable data on the state of our economy?\nOur task force on productivity and jobs will survey the pace, reach, and impact of new general-purpose technologies. We've experienced technological advances all our lives. But given the scale of investment—and potential changes in the method and speed of innovation—we might be seeing changes of a different order. The task force will survey the landscape and ask: What do these changes mean for America's productive capacity and for American workers? And what are the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates?\nFinally, the task force on inflation frameworks will examine the drivers of inflation and weigh a range of ideas for delivering price stability. This group will ask: Do our models and our thinking provide an empirically robust view of prices and outputs in our dynamic economy? Can we do better?\nWe are starting a new chapter at the Federal Reserve at a consequential time for our nation. It's been a privilege to return to the Fed and to work again with so many talented and dedicated people I'm fortunate to call my colleagues.\nI can report to you that we intend to be fit for purpose and focused on the future. We are the Federal Reserve, and we are as determined as ever to fulfill the mission that Congress has given us.\nThank you, and I welcome your questions."}],"former_chair_speeches":[{"kind":"speech","title":"Acceptance Remarks","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260531a.htm","speaker":"Governor Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-05-31","full_text":"Thank you, Jack, for that kind introduction. It is a great privilege to be here tonight with you, Ambassador Kennedy, and your family. And thank you to the JFK Library Foundation and the committee members for this honor.\n1\nPresident Kennedy was an inspiring public servant who demonstrated compassion, grace, ingenuity, and courage during trying times. He was also a towering figure in my early life. In November 1963, I was a fifth grader at Blessed Sacrament School in Washington, D.C. That terrible afternoon, our teachers were suddenly called to the principal's office, only to return in tears. I remember that moment very clearly, and the dark days that followed. They made an indelible impression on me. I am one of the many whom President Kennedy inspired to serve the public.\nSixty-two years on, it is worth remembering how fortunate we are to be Americans today, and to enjoy the fruits of 250 years of progress toward the Founders' timeless ideal that all of us are created equal. We inherit and hold in trust a nation built on the promise of freedom. We are blessed by the courage of previous generations who worked, sacrificed, and dreamed so that we could live in the strongest, most prosperous nation in the world.\nThe United States has long been the leader of the world's freedom-seeking people—the indispensable nation. Other countries know us as a nation built on integrity, and that integrity must be maintained. President Kennedy upheld that tradition and resisted the expansion of authoritarianism, which is the antithesis of American values. He embraced and worked to strengthen the system of international economic and security arrangements that has now been in place for some 80 years—arrangements that have supported democracy and freedom and served the United States, and the world, extremely well.\nHere at home, our great public and private institutions are the foundation and the embodiment of our democracy. Our universities and research institutions are a critical national resource and the envy of the world. The same is true of our Constitution, our legislative bodies, and our court system.\nThe Federal Reserve is just one of many such public institutions. Since our founding in 1913, the Fed's role has been to provide economic and financial stability. We use our monetary policy tools to promote maximum employment and stable prices. We regulate and supervise banks. We operate critical parts of the payments system. And we use our powerful liquidity tools as a first responder in times of financial crisis. Over the past 20 years, we have been called upon to forcefully deploy those emergency tools in two world-historical crises that pushed the financial system and the economy to the point of failure—the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. While these twin crises created great hardship for families and businesses, the U.S. economy performed by far the best of any comparable economy through those difficult years. Many in the private and public sectors played a hand in achieving that outcome. I would like to single out the work in both crises of the career staff at the Fed, a truly extraordinary group of committed public servants who serve all Americans. Serving alongside them for the past 14 years has been a great honor.\nEven in good times, central banks make monetary policy decisions under high uncertainty—about the true state and path of the economy, and the timing and scope of the effects of our policies. At the Fed, we are, of course, human and thus imperfect. When we make mistakes, we acknowledge them and change course. What the public has every right to expect is that we will make our decisions based only on our best economic analysis of what would most benefit the people we serve. We do not take into account the fortunes of any political party or politician in making those decisions.\nLike many other institutions, the Fed has been undergoing a stress test. Congress wisely chose to insulate monetary policy decisions from political pressure. All other advanced economy nations have done the same. Our federated structure is a bit complex, but the legal protections that support the non-political conduct of monetary policy are straightforward. Fed governors and Reserve Bank presidents hold office with legal protection against removal. We serve long terms unrelated to the four-year presidential election cycle. When a new administration takes office, its role is to fill vacancies on the Board of Governors, and for Chair and Vice Chair, as and when they arise, subject in all cases to Senate confirmation. Administrations play no role in the selection or oversight of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.\nThese protections have served the public well, and administrations from both parties have respected them. If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well. The public would lose faith that the central bank will make decisions based only on what's best for all Americans. The Fed's credibility would be lost. That credibility enables the Fed to support a strong and stable economy for the benefit of American families and businesses. Our credibility has been built and sustained over many decades, and we have a duty to safeguard that priceless asset for our fellow citizens and for generations to come.\nAs Americans, we are motivated by the belief that freedom and democracy greatly enhance human fulfillment. The work to preserve and strengthen our own democracy can be noisy, frustrating, and, at times, embattled. Partisan political differences are normal—indeed essential—in a thriving democracy. But we ought to be united in our commitment to the higher principles that define our nation. Chief among them is respect for the rule of law. As John Adams wrote, ours is \"a government of laws and not of men.\"\n2\nOur public institutions carry us forward through change. These institutions embody our commitment to freedom, democracy, and service of the public good. The philosopher Edmund Burke warned that democratic institutions take much time, effort, and patience to build but can be torn down all too quickly.\n3\nIt is essential that we preserve what is good about these institutions, even as we strive to improve them.\nWhile we will have political differences, at the end of the day, we all love this wonderful country, and want what is best for it and for our fellow Americans.\nIn the eternal words of President Kennedy: \"Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.\"\n4\n1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.\nReturn to text\n2. See John Adams (1775), \"\nVII. To the Inhabitants of the Colony of Massachusetts-Bay\n,\"\nPapers of John Adams,\nvol. 2, Massachusetts Historical Society, March 6, paragraph 20.\nReturn to text\n3. \"Rage and frenzy will pull down more in half an hour than prudence, deliberation, and foresight can build up in a hundred years,\" Edmund Burke (1881), \"Reflections on the Revolution in France,\" The Works of the Right Honorable Edmund Burke, vol. 3, pp. 231–563 (Boston: Little, Brown, and Company).\nReturn to text\n4. See John F. Kennedy (1961), \"\nInaugural Address\n,\" speech delivered at the Inauguration of the 35th President of the United States, January 20, Washington, paragraph 26.\nReturn to text"},{"kind":"speech","title":"Acceptance Remarks","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260321a.htm","speaker":"Chair Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-03-21","full_text":"[Space Bar]\ntoggles play/pause;\nseeks the video forwards and back (5 sec );\n[Up/Down Arrows]\nincrease/decrease volume;\n[M]\ntoggles mute on/off;\n[F]\ntoggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11);\nThe\n[Tab]\nkey may be used in combination with the\n[Enter/Return]\nkey to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.\nIt is a humbling honor just to be mentioned alongside Chairman Volcker. He stands out as a towering figure in economics and central banking, perhaps our greatest public servant in the economic arena. His legacy is one of commitment to serve the public selflessly, courageously, and with the highest degree of integrity.\nPaul Volcker exemplified integrity in public service, enabling him to earn the trust of presidents and lawmakers from both parties. He served at the Treasury under three presidents—Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon—before leading the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987, nominated by President Carter and reappointed by President Reagan. Non-political, non-partisan service is the bedrock of the Federal Reserve, and no one embodies that virtue more than Paul Volcker.\nAt the Fed, his defining test came in confronting double-digit inflation in the early 1980s. Despite political pressure and a painful recession, he held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him to change course, Volcker acknowledged the pain of wringing out inflation through high interest rates but held out the prospect of a return to price stability, and with it a much brighter future. And he deserves a good part of the credit for achieving just that future and launching our economy on a period of low and stable inflation and steady growth that we now look back on as the Great Moderation.\nHis willingness to resist short-term pressures in the interest of achieving lasting price stability demonstrated the courage and long-term perspective that define principled public service. Paul Volcker set an example that all public servants should emulate. His actions remind us that independence and integrity are inseparable—we need independence to do what is right, and we need integrity to use that independence wisely.\nUltimately, each of us will want to look back at the arc of our lives and know that we did what was the right thing. As Paul Volcker showed throughout his career, in the end, our integrity is all we have.\nThank you again for this humbling honor."},{"kind":"speech","title":"Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm","speaker":"Chair Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-01-11","full_text":"[Space Bar]\ntoggles play/pause;\nseeks the video forwards and back (5 sec );\n[Up/Down Arrows]\nincrease/decrease volume;\n[M]\ntoggles mute on/off;\n[F]\ntoggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11);\nThe\n[Tab]\nkey may be used in combination with the\n[Enter/Return]\nkey to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.\nGood evening.\nOn Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.\nI have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.\nThis new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role; the Fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.\nThis is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.\nI have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.\nThank you."}],"fomc_meetings_2026":[{"date":"2026 January 27-28","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a1.htm","longer_run_goals":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128b.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260128.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued January 28, 2026"},{"date":"2026 March 17-18","projection_meeting":true,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htm","projections_sep":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued March 18, 2026"},{"date":"2026 April 28-29","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued April 29, 2026"},{"date":"2026 June 16-17","projection_meeting":true,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260617.htm","projections_sep":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:\nThe Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued June 17, 2026"},{"date":"2026 July 28-29","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:\nThe Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nVoting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued July 29, 2026"},{"date":"2026 September 15-16","projection_meeting":true,"held":false},{"date":"2026 October 27-28","projection_meeting":false,"held":false},{"date":"2026 December 8-9","projection_meeting":true,"held":false}],"rate_outlook":{"source":"FOMC 声明原文解析 + SEP 点阵图（定性）；精确加息概率见 CME FedWatch","method":"利率区间/投票由最新 FOMC 声明正则解析；实时隐含概率由后端定时拉 CME FedWatch 刷新","note":"点阵图(SEP)给出委员年末利率预期中位数与分布，可推算政策路径倾向。","latest_meeting":"2026 July 28-29","latest_statement_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm","target_range_pct":"3-1/2 - 3-3/4","latest_action":"维持利率不变","vote":"9 赞成 / 3 反对","dissent":true},"ai_analysis":"## 美联储政策 AI 解读（现任主席：Kevin Warsh）\n- 现任主席：Kevin Warsh（以美联储官网理事会成员名单为准）。本产品收录其 2 篇公开原稿（讲话/国会证词），全文非摘要。\n- 同时收录前任主席同年 3 篇原稿，便于对比政策口径的延续与转向。\n- FOMC 会议：2026 年共 8 场，已召开 5 场并附政策声明全文，另带会议纪要、点阵图(SEP)与新闻发布会链接。\n- 当前政策利率：联邦基金目标区间 3-1/2 - 3-3/4%，最近一次会议（2026 July 28-29）维持利率不变。\n- 投票情况：9 赞成 / 3 反对。委员会出现分歧票，说明政策转向的博弈已经开始，需重点关注下次会议措辞。\n- 政策倾向：利率路径取决于通胀与就业双向数据；点阵图反映委员分歧，声明措辞变化预示政策拐点。\n- 加息概率：精确值由 CME FedWatch（联邦基金期货隐含）给出；定性上，若通胀粘性超预期、点阵图偏鹰，则维持高利率概率上升。\n- 风险提示：科技股与黄金等资产对利率高度敏感；点阵图仅为委员预测，实际路径随数据演化。本数据仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。","collected_at":"2026-08-30T06:40:10Z","data_source":"Federal Reserve 官网 federalreserve.gov（官方免费）","update_note":"主席原稿随官网披露更新（讲话+国会证词）；FOMC 按官方公开日程；加息概率实时值由后端定时拉取 CME FedWatch 刷新","data_type":"经济指标","source":"file_local","raw":{"product":"fed-policy","chairman":"Kevin Warsh","chairman_source":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm（官网理事会成员名单）","board_members":[{"name":"Kevin Warsh","title":"Chairman"},{"name":"Philip N. Jefferson","title":"Vice Chair"},{"name":"Michelle W. Bowman","title":"Vice Chair for Supervision"}],"chairman_speeches":[{"kind":"speech","title":"In Our Time","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm","speaker":"Chairman Kevin Warsh","date":"2026-08-28","full_text":"Thank you. It's great to be here again and to see so many familiar faces. I've been looking forward to this weekend—what better place to mark my 100th day as Chairman?\nFor the fine hospitality, everyone here is in debt to President Jeff Schmid and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jeff, our thanks to you all.\nJeff and the other planners have some recreation options lined up for later today. And I'd advise you to be very careful with your choices.\nAs I learned years ago, you can take two different kinds of hikes on the trails around Jackson Hole. I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Kohn in two words: I survived. These steely marathon death marches revealed a side of Don I wasn't ready for.\nThere's another kind of hike—one I associate with Chairman Ben Bernanke, my old colleague. With Ben, it's a much more leisurely pace, an easy stroll along the wandering trails at the Rockefeller Preserve.\nSo before setting out, do a wellness check and ask yourself: \"Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day?\"\nThe best thing about this gathering is that it helps us all clear our minds and think straight about our world and our time. For me, it feels like the right place, and the right audience, for a real engagement with the ideas that matter most.\nInnovation is the conference theme, and I believe that the public and the markets—in their collective wisdom—understand that innovations in the conduct of policy at the Fed will help deliver price stability alongside full employment.\nHere is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline . . . you can call it a trail map . . . just don't call it forward guidance.\nFirst, I'll touch on a few of the longer-term questions we're asking at the Fed about the latest general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and where it might take the economy.\nThen I'll reflect a bit on the practice of forward guidance and the interaction between the central bank and financial markets.\nNext, I'll present some of the key principles that I believe should guide the conduct of monetary policy.\nAnd, finally, I'll give you my assessment of the economy.\nPreparing for Future Policy Conjunctures\nWith the unchanging picture of the Tetons as our backdrop, we are here to survey an economic landscape that is anything but static.\nIt wasn't so long ago—in the run-up to the crisis of 2008 and over the decade that followed—when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation and a global saving glut.\n1\nIt was a widely held view that an excess of capital would sit on the sidelines for a long, long time, because there just wouldn't be enough compelling investment opportunities. All the good stuff had been invented. So growth would be low and slow.\n2\nWell, times sure have changed. We've come to a hinge point in history.\n3\nTo cite the clearest example, progress in artificial intelligence—the 80-year-old name for the newest technology—has been faster even than its evangelists predicted a couple of years ago.\nThe potential for substantially higher growth is on the rise. Ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts. A kind of hyper–Moore's law seems to be playing out. Scaling laws, too, are changing both the method and speed of innovation.\n4\nCapital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago.\nThe Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:\nWill the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?\nWill token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution?\nAmong the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?\nLikewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?\nWe will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.\nTo be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.\nForward Guidance and Its Stand-ins\nAs our task forces go about their work, I am not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to make us fit for purpose. To highlight one example, I have set out to change the form and function of the Fed Chairman's so-called forward guidance. You might know about my long-time discomfort with early pronouncements of future policy decisions. I much prefer another path . . . and will make the case for it.\nTransparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself. Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility: getting monetary policy right.\n5\nForward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis.\n6\nIt was essential at the time, and we introduced it with much fanfare. But, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome.\nIn normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed. Otherwise it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity. Oversharing policy deliberations and overcommitting to future decisions can lead markets, businesses, and households astray.\n7\nAnd I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates through the cycle, we inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it's time to decide.\nTo get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank. The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible . . . from market internals . . . the level and change in asset prices across sectors . . . the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities. . . the foreign exchange value of the dollar . . . the cost and availability of credit . . . and the price of a broad set of commodities.\nThese and other indicators should inform the Fed's near-term outlook on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle. They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions . . . and the risks and uncertainties in the financial cycle.\nAt the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information across the economy. They should draw their own conclusions; form their own expectations of output, employment, and inflation; and stay sharply attuned to risks.\nThe Fed should be humble and never naïve. The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.\nThe economic literature has long described the distorting effects: a hall-of-mirrors problem.\n8\nIf markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we are all more likely to be blinded to new developments . . . more likely to be caught unprepared for a turn of events . . . and more likely to commit errors in policymaking.\n9\nPerversely, market participants are unlikely to bear the biggest costs of the hall-of-mirrors problem. The most serious harm is likely to befall those without financial assets. If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? Not the financial high-fliers. Hard-working Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that is too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.\nSo, if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, then how about the new Fed chief commits—at the very least—to an explicit reaction function? Surely, he should tell us his interest rate path—if, say, the data were to come in hot or cold.\nI wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried-and-true answer—that some simple function like a Taylor rule could be rigorously relied upon. But our knowledge just doesn't extend that far—at least not yet—and the factors most relevant to the proper conduct of monetary policy change over time.\nProviding forecasts to illustrate the Fed's reaction function works better in theory than in practice, better in the lab than in the field. I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.\n10\nIn my term as Chairman, my colleagues and I will endeavor to construct more reliable models and more robust rules to guide policy decisions. We'll do this knowing that accuracy in economic forecasting is still just an aspiration. With so much changing so fast in geopolitics, global supply chains, and technology, it's wise to be modest about what we can and cannot know.\nIn the same spirit, we should receive the full range of ideas on matters that may inform the Fed's monetary policy decisions. If the aim is optimal decisionmaking, we should not crowd out views on the economy.\nKey Principles\nTurning to principles . . .\nFirst, I've noticed that, in this line of work, yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now. The challenge is to know the difference. In other words, we must interrogate reality to make sure we are not setting forward-looking policy based on stale or inaccurate data. Nor should we rely on isolated data points. Trends matter most. The Fed is a decisionmaking agency. We make choices amid uncertainty, and the data upon which we draw must be as relevant, contemporaneous, accurate, and actionable as possible.\n11\nSecond, the Federal Reserve's actions are intended to ensure that the aggregate demand side of the economy is broadly consistent with aggregate supply. However, all we observe directly is activity. We never see, and can only infer, what's really happening on the supply side. Hence, evaluating the current and expected balance between aggregate supply and demand is imprecise.\n12\nThird, there should be no misunderstanding: The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target. Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.\nFourth, the Fed also bears responsibility for maximum employment. Achieving both sides of our mandate over the medium term is not an either/or proposition. I do not believe that the Fed's dual mandate works at cross-purposes. After all, high inflation itself is very harmful to economic prosperity.\nFifth, short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.\nSixth, money matters. It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy.\n13\nWe should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems.\n14\nIt's true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.\nFinally, a quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit—the only true test of our credibility. To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, \"At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results.\"\n15\nThe Economy Today\nNow, given these principles, how do I read the economy today? What's really going on outside the window?\n16\nYou may have read in the July minutes the unanimous view of the FOMC:\n17\nLabor markets were stable, and output was solid. But inflation remained too high. A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require.\nFor my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient.\nSeveral observations:\nBusiness capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to AI.\nFor firms in the S&P 500, profits have grown by more than 20 percent over the past year. Profit margins are quite elevated, relative to history. Overall equity market volatility is low. We're staying keenly focused on market internals, watching performance across sectors.\nExpectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.\nCredit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low ends of their historical ranges, and issuance volumes in these markets have been quite strong this year. Looking beyond fixed-income markets to the banking business, in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tell us that standards for commercial and industrial loans are on the easier end of their historical range. That helps explain the growth we've seen this year in those loans. Credit and loan markets are showing few signs of policy restraint.\nCertain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.\nReal consumer spending has been healthy despite the shocks, increasing more than 2 percent over the past four quarters. Combining consumption with the brisk investment we've observed, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) has also risen. PDFP has increased at a pace of nearly 3 percent so far this calendar year. That's a measure that typically carries more signal than gross domestic product, and the trend here too is positive.\nOn the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well. Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades.\nIn my view, the relatively low turnover in today's labor market is partly a result of the significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment.\nWhen labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.\nBut on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent. The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation. None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.\nThe job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation—that is, the generalized change in prices in the economy, unaffected by idiosyncratic factors. We want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising, falling, or stuck in place. We also want to understand not just the direction of travel, but also the speed. Each of these broad inflation measures has fallen significantly from their 2022 heights. But progress over the past two years has been modest.\nAnd while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.\nThe data also show moderate wage growth. But in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time.\n18\nTo try to gauge underlying inflation, I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PCE price measure. Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic.\nLooking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs but still quite elevated.\nThe recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What we need to judge is whether trends indicate upside inflation risks.\nIt matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five-plus years have seeped into expectations. The good news is that measures of inflation expectations in the medium term, by and large, look stable. And inflation compensation measures from the swaps market send a strong and similar message.\nEspecially in light of recent developments, it is a credit to the Fed as an institution—and consistent with the best of the Fed's traditions—that market prices show confidence that we will deliver price stability. And I can assure you . . . they're right.\nThe thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't. Those expectations are not pushed around easily, and right now they are well anchored. But they must be closely minded. It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored.\nThere is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, e"},{"kind":"testimony","title":"Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/warsh20260714a.htm","speaker":"Chairman Kevin Warsh","date":"2026-07-14","full_text":"Chairman Warsh submitted identical remarks to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, on July 15, 2026.\nChairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee—good morning.\nIt's a privilege to join you. At my first appearance before this panel, I am particularly honored to represent my superb colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System.\nIn submitting the Board's\nMonetary Policy Report\n, I think of a long line of central bank chiefs who came before Congress in keeping with the Federal Reserve Act. I think also of earlier efforts, going back to the time of the Framers, to create a central bank that would endure and serve the nation's founding principles.\nOne of the large figures in the Federal Reserve's history is Alan Greenspan, who passed away last month after a century of life. By my count, my friend appeared before Congress more than two hundred times, displaying his agile mind and his distinctive way with words. We at the Fed recall the Chairman's strong and steady hand in a period of rapid economic change. And we honor his memory.\nAs a country, we just marked our 250th year. And when Americans count our blessings, we can include an economy predicated on the brilliance of our constitutional design and system of ordered liberty—an economy without equal in all it's done for human flourishing.\nSome forms of Fed communications are discretionary, but not this one—and for good reason. It is a prudent and wisely conceived obligation, designed to keep the Fed accountable, responsible, and faithful to its congressional mandate of full employment and price stability. These obligations are of a piece with the Fed's rightful independence in the conduct of monetary policy.\nToday we are at a hinge point in history. It's up to all of us to meet this moment. The task of this generation of policymakers—and of individuals throughout the private sector—is to ensure the American economy excels far into the future.\n* * * *\nThe Fed's number one objective is to get monetary policy right—or as near to it as we possibly can. That is our clear and constant aim, the star we steer by. And if we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.\nA month ago, I chaired my first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. My colleagues and I recognize that high inflation has been an undue burden on American households and businesses. While monthly price fluctuations are inevitable—especially in an unsettled world—underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy.\nNaturally, our work at the Fed demands a proper reading on economic conditions. As you see in our\nMonetary Policy Report\n, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience in the face of recent developments. Household consumption growth is moderate. Manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year. The housing sector, however, gives a different picture and continues to lag.\nThe most striking feature of the economy right now is business investment. The rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—reflects, in large part, the construction of data centers and the immense demand for the AI-related equipment and software that fill them. Investment in equipment overall increased about 8 percent for the year ending in the first quarter. Within that category, high-tech spending logged an especially impressive growth rate of nearly 25 percent on a four-quarter basis. We don't know the extent to which the economy will benefit from the AI buildout. Yet it seems inevitable that what is now called \"AI investment\" will soon be called just \"investment.\" Even so, new opportunities for the economy introduce new challenges for policymakers. We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for inflation and the labor market.\nThat brings me to the supply side, where productivity growth has been strong, predating gains from AI adoption. America's labor market appears broadly stable. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year. We're seeing relatively few layoffs, only slight variance in the rate of job vacancies, and solid growth in nominal wages.\n* * * *\nI came to my new position as a believer in the best traditions of the Federal Reserve. The performance of our nation's central bank depends on a commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity. Humility about what we know—and the courage to revisit our prior views—are also hallmarks of a great institution like ours. All of these standards define the culture of the Fed, and it's my responsibility to uphold them.\nI am heartened by the welcome I've received and by the encouragement of my colleagues in considering how best to advance the conduct of policy. We have a duty to point the institution forward—to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives.\nAnd we are going about it systematically. I have appointed a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy. We have engaged some of the very best minds, from inside and outside the economics profession. They are supported by specialists from the Fed's expert staff. The task forces have been given a straightforward charge: Start with first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practices, consider alternatives, and, ultimately, propose next steps for policymaker consideration. The purpose here is to equip the Fed to make better decisions in monetary policy and to put these years of high inflation behind us.\nThe first task force will assess the form and function of Fed communications. It will ask: What is the efficacy, and what are the risks, of how we currently deliberate and convey our policy choices?\nThe second task force will review the Fed's balance sheet policies, including the ample-reserves regime and the composition of asset holdings. It will ask: What are the advantages and disadvantages of that regime, and what are the alternatives?\nThe third task force will evaluate new data sources and consider methodological changes to improve the information upon which we rely. It will ask: How do we ensure that policymakers are receiving accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, actionable data on the state of our economy?\nOur task force on productivity and jobs will survey the pace, reach, and impact of new general-purpose technologies. We've experienced technological advances all our lives. But given the scale of investment—and potential changes in the method and speed of innovation—we might be seeing changes of a different order. The task force will survey the landscape and ask: What do these changes mean for America's productive capacity and for American workers? And what are the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates?\nFinally, the task force on inflation frameworks will examine the drivers of inflation and weigh a range of ideas for delivering price stability. This group will ask: Do our models and our thinking provide an empirically robust view of prices and outputs in our dynamic economy? Can we do better?\nWe are starting a new chapter at the Federal Reserve at a consequential time for our nation. It's been a privilege to return to the Fed and to work again with so many talented and dedicated people I'm fortunate to call my colleagues.\nI can report to you that we intend to be fit for purpose and focused on the future. We are the Federal Reserve, and we are as determined as ever to fulfill the mission that Congress has given us.\nThank you, and I welcome your questions."}],"former_chair_speeches":[{"kind":"speech","title":"Acceptance Remarks","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260531a.htm","speaker":"Governor Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-05-31","full_text":"Thank you, Jack, for that kind introduction. It is a great privilege to be here tonight with you, Ambassador Kennedy, and your family. And thank you to the JFK Library Foundation and the committee members for this honor.\n1\nPresident Kennedy was an inspiring public servant who demonstrated compassion, grace, ingenuity, and courage during trying times. He was also a towering figure in my early life. In November 1963, I was a fifth grader at Blessed Sacrament School in Washington, D.C. That terrible afternoon, our teachers were suddenly called to the principal's office, only to return in tears. I remember that moment very clearly, and the dark days that followed. They made an indelible impression on me. I am one of the many whom President Kennedy inspired to serve the public.\nSixty-two years on, it is worth remembering how fortunate we are to be Americans today, and to enjoy the fruits of 250 years of progress toward the Founders' timeless ideal that all of us are created equal. We inherit and hold in trust a nation built on the promise of freedom. We are blessed by the courage of previous generations who worked, sacrificed, and dreamed so that we could live in the strongest, most prosperous nation in the world.\nThe United States has long been the leader of the world's freedom-seeking people—the indispensable nation. Other countries know us as a nation built on integrity, and that integrity must be maintained. President Kennedy upheld that tradition and resisted the expansion of authoritarianism, which is the antithesis of American values. He embraced and worked to strengthen the system of international economic and security arrangements that has now been in place for some 80 years—arrangements that have supported democracy and freedom and served the United States, and the world, extremely well.\nHere at home, our great public and private institutions are the foundation and the embodiment of our democracy. Our universities and research institutions are a critical national resource and the envy of the world. The same is true of our Constitution, our legislative bodies, and our court system.\nThe Federal Reserve is just one of many such public institutions. Since our founding in 1913, the Fed's role has been to provide economic and financial stability. We use our monetary policy tools to promote maximum employment and stable prices. We regulate and supervise banks. We operate critical parts of the payments system. And we use our powerful liquidity tools as a first responder in times of financial crisis. Over the past 20 years, we have been called upon to forcefully deploy those emergency tools in two world-historical crises that pushed the financial system and the economy to the point of failure—the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. While these twin crises created great hardship for families and businesses, the U.S. economy performed by far the best of any comparable economy through those difficult years. Many in the private and public sectors played a hand in achieving that outcome. I would like to single out the work in both crises of the career staff at the Fed, a truly extraordinary group of committed public servants who serve all Americans. Serving alongside them for the past 14 years has been a great honor.\nEven in good times, central banks make monetary policy decisions under high uncertainty—about the true state and path of the economy, and the timing and scope of the effects of our policies. At the Fed, we are, of course, human and thus imperfect. When we make mistakes, we acknowledge them and change course. What the public has every right to expect is that we will make our decisions based only on our best economic analysis of what would most benefit the people we serve. We do not take into account the fortunes of any political party or politician in making those decisions.\nLike many other institutions, the Fed has been undergoing a stress test. Congress wisely chose to insulate monetary policy decisions from political pressure. All other advanced economy nations have done the same. Our federated structure is a bit complex, but the legal protections that support the non-political conduct of monetary policy are straightforward. Fed governors and Reserve Bank presidents hold office with legal protection against removal. We serve long terms unrelated to the four-year presidential election cycle. When a new administration takes office, its role is to fill vacancies on the Board of Governors, and for Chair and Vice Chair, as and when they arise, subject in all cases to Senate confirmation. Administrations play no role in the selection or oversight of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.\nThese protections have served the public well, and administrations from both parties have respected them. If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well. The public would lose faith that the central bank will make decisions based only on what's best for all Americans. The Fed's credibility would be lost. That credibility enables the Fed to support a strong and stable economy for the benefit of American families and businesses. Our credibility has been built and sustained over many decades, and we have a duty to safeguard that priceless asset for our fellow citizens and for generations to come.\nAs Americans, we are motivated by the belief that freedom and democracy greatly enhance human fulfillment. The work to preserve and strengthen our own democracy can be noisy, frustrating, and, at times, embattled. Partisan political differences are normal—indeed essential—in a thriving democracy. But we ought to be united in our commitment to the higher principles that define our nation. Chief among them is respect for the rule of law. As John Adams wrote, ours is \"a government of laws and not of men.\"\n2\nOur public institutions carry us forward through change. These institutions embody our commitment to freedom, democracy, and service of the public good. The philosopher Edmund Burke warned that democratic institutions take much time, effort, and patience to build but can be torn down all too quickly.\n3\nIt is essential that we preserve what is good about these institutions, even as we strive to improve them.\nWhile we will have political differences, at the end of the day, we all love this wonderful country, and want what is best for it and for our fellow Americans.\nIn the eternal words of President Kennedy: \"Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.\"\n4\n1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.\nReturn to text\n2. See John Adams (1775), \"\nVII. To the Inhabitants of the Colony of Massachusetts-Bay\n,\"\nPapers of John Adams,\nvol. 2, Massachusetts Historical Society, March 6, paragraph 20.\nReturn to text\n3. \"Rage and frenzy will pull down more in half an hour than prudence, deliberation, and foresight can build up in a hundred years,\" Edmund Burke (1881), \"Reflections on the Revolution in France,\" The Works of the Right Honorable Edmund Burke, vol. 3, pp. 231–563 (Boston: Little, Brown, and Company).\nReturn to text\n4. See John F. Kennedy (1961), \"\nInaugural Address\n,\" speech delivered at the Inauguration of the 35th President of the United States, January 20, Washington, paragraph 26.\nReturn to text"},{"kind":"speech","title":"Acceptance Remarks","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260321a.htm","speaker":"Chair Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-03-21","full_text":"[Space Bar]\ntoggles play/pause;\nseeks the video forwards and back (5 sec );\n[Up/Down Arrows]\nincrease/decrease volume;\n[M]\ntoggles mute on/off;\n[F]\ntoggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11);\nThe\n[Tab]\nkey may be used in combination with the\n[Enter/Return]\nkey to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.\nIt is a humbling honor just to be mentioned alongside Chairman Volcker. He stands out as a towering figure in economics and central banking, perhaps our greatest public servant in the economic arena. His legacy is one of commitment to serve the public selflessly, courageously, and with the highest degree of integrity.\nPaul Volcker exemplified integrity in public service, enabling him to earn the trust of presidents and lawmakers from both parties. He served at the Treasury under three presidents—Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon—before leading the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987, nominated by President Carter and reappointed by President Reagan. Non-political, non-partisan service is the bedrock of the Federal Reserve, and no one embodies that virtue more than Paul Volcker.\nAt the Fed, his defining test came in confronting double-digit inflation in the early 1980s. Despite political pressure and a painful recession, he held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him to change course, Volcker acknowledged the pain of wringing out inflation through high interest rates but held out the prospect of a return to price stability, and with it a much brighter future. And he deserves a good part of the credit for achieving just that future and launching our economy on a period of low and stable inflation and steady growth that we now look back on as the Great Moderation.\nHis willingness to resist short-term pressures in the interest of achieving lasting price stability demonstrated the courage and long-term perspective that define principled public service. Paul Volcker set an example that all public servants should emulate. His actions remind us that independence and integrity are inseparable—we need independence to do what is right, and we need integrity to use that independence wisely.\nUltimately, each of us will want to look back at the arc of our lives and know that we did what was the right thing. As Paul Volcker showed throughout his career, in the end, our integrity is all we have.\nThank you again for this humbling honor."},{"kind":"speech","title":"Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm","speaker":"Chair Jerome H. Powell","date":"2026-01-11","full_text":"[Space Bar]\ntoggles play/pause;\nseeks the video forwards and back (5 sec );\n[Up/Down Arrows]\nincrease/decrease volume;\n[M]\ntoggles mute on/off;\n[F]\ntoggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11);\nThe\n[Tab]\nkey may be used in combination with the\n[Enter/Return]\nkey to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.\nGood evening.\nOn Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.\nI have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.\nThis new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role; the Fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.\nThis is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.\nI have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.\nThank you."}],"fomc_meetings_2026":[{"date":"2026 January 27-28","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a1.htm","longer_run_goals":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128b.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260128.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued January 28, 2026"},{"date":"2026 March 17-18","projection_meeting":true,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htm","projections_sep":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued March 18, 2026"},{"date":"2026 April 28-29","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.\nIn support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued April 29, 2026"},{"date":"2026 June 16-17","projection_meeting":true,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260617.htm","projections_sep":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:\nThe Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued June 17, 2026"},{"date":"2026 July 28-29","projection_meeting":false,"statement":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm","implementation_note":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm","press_conference":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm","minutes":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm","held":true,"statement_text":"The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:\nThe Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nVoting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email\n[email protected]\nor call 202-452-2955.\nImplementation Note issued July 29, 2026"},{"date":"2026 September 15-16","projection_meeting":true,"held":false},{"date":"2026 October 27-28","projection_meeting":false,"held":false},{"date":"2026 December 8-9","projection_meeting":true,"held":false}],"rate_outlook":{"source":"FOMC 声明原文解析 + SEP 点阵图（定性）；精确加息概率见 CME FedWatch","method":"利率区间/投票由最新 FOMC 声明正则解析；实时隐含概率由后端定时拉 CME FedWatch 刷新","note":"点阵图(SEP)给出委员年末利率预期中位数与分布，可推算政策路径倾向。","latest_meeting":"2026 July 28-29","latest_statement_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm","target_range_pct":"3-1/2 - 3-3/4","latest_action":"维持利率不变","vote":"9 赞成 / 3 反对","dissent":true},"ai_analysis":"## 美联储政策 AI 解读（现任主席：Kevin Warsh）\n- 现任主席：Kevin Warsh（以美联储官网理事会成员名单为准）。本产品收录其 2 篇公开原稿（讲话/国会证词），全文非摘要。\n- 同时收录前任主席同年 3 篇原稿，便于对比政策口径的延续与转向。\n- FOMC 会议：2026 年共 8 场，已召开 5 场并附政策声明全文，另带会议纪要、点阵图(SEP)与新闻发布会链接。\n- 当前政策利率：联邦基金目标区间 3-1/2 - 3-3/4%，最近一次会议（2026 July 28-29）维持利率不变。\n- 投票情况：9 赞成 / 3 反对。委员会出现分歧票，说明政策转向的博弈已经开始，需重点关注下次会议措辞。\n- 政策倾向：利率路径取决于通胀与就业双向数据；点阵图反映委员分歧，声明措辞变化预示政策拐点。\n- 加息概率：精确值由 CME FedWatch（联邦基金期货隐含）给出；定性上，若通胀粘性超预期、点阵图偏鹰，则维持高利率概率上升。\n- 风险提示：科技股与黄金等资产对利率高度敏感；点阵图仅为委员预测，实际路径随数据演化。本数据仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。","data_source":"Federal Reserve 官网 federalreserve.gov（官方免费）","update_note":"主席原稿随官网披露更新（讲话+国会证词）；FOMC 按官方公开日程；加息概率实时值由后端定时拉取 CME FedWatch 刷新"}}